The mid and small-cap segments continued their outperformance. BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices rose 1.19% and 1.63%, respectively. Volatility index India VIX dropped over 5% to 17.23.

Top 3 stocks recommended by Ankush Bajaj for 15 May:

Buy: Larsen & Toubro Ltd (L&T) (current price: ₹3,573.00)

• Why it’s recommended: On daily chart, stock’s RSI is trading above 60 showing strength. The stock is trading above all major moving averages. On lower time frame, after breaking important resistance level of ₹3,525, the stock entered a brief consolidation phase. This pause after breakout indicates strength and the possibility of a continued rally towards ₹3,650+ levels.
• Key metrics: Resistance level: ₹3,655– ₹3,670 (supply zone), Support level: ₹3,525 (recent breakout base), Pattern: Breakout + consolidation, Volume: Healthy during breakout
• Technical analysis: Price is trading above 20, 50, and 100 DMA. RSI >60 and the breakout pattern on lower time frame support bullish momentum. Brief consolidation after breakout adds confidence to further upside potential.
• Risk factors: Breakdown below ₹3,525 with volume may invalidate pattern. Market-wide weakness or infra sector pullback could affect performance.
• Buy at: ₹3,573.00
• Target price: ₹3,655– ₹3,670 in 4–5 days
• Stop loss: ₹3,525 

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• Why it’s recommended: Stock gave a strong closing near ₹195, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the swing high of ₹240 to low of ₹150 — indicating potential for further upside towards ₹205+. On the lower time frame (15 min), the stock has given a reverse Head & Shoulder breakout, confirming a bullish reversal pattern.
• Key metrics: Resistance level: ₹205– ₹208 (supply zone), Support level: ₹193 (neckline support), Pattern: Reverse Head & Shoulder Breakout, Volume: Above average during breakout
• Technical analysis: Price is trading above short-term moving averages. The 50% Fibonacci level near ₹195 is acting as a breakout zone. The breakout of a reversal pattern on 15-min chart supports bullish continuation. Momentum indicators are aligned with strength.
• Risk factors: Breakdown below ₹193 with volume may invalidate the pattern. Broader market weakness or failure to hold the retracement level could delay the upside.
• Buy at: ₹197.00
• Target price: ₹205– ₹208 in 4–5 days
• Stop loss: ₹193.0

Buy: APL Apollo Tubes Ltd (current price: ₹1,745.00)

• Why it’s recommended: On the daily chart, the stock is approaching a major resistance zone around the current levels. Historically, the stock has faced sharp rejections from this area 3–4 times. However, this time, daily RSI is trending upwards and MACD is in a fresh buy signal, indicating strength. On the lower time frame (15 min), the stock has given a breakout from a bullish flag pattern, suggesting the potential for a continuation move towards higher levels.
• Key metrics: Resistance level: ₹1,795– ₹1,810 (supply zone), Support level: ₹1,715 (flag breakout base), Pattern: Bullish Flag Breakout, Volume: Above average during breakout
• Technical analysis: Price is trading above 20, 50, and 100 DMA. Daily RSI is rising, MACD is in a bullish crossover, and a clear flag pattern breakout on the 15-min chart confirms bullish intent. A breakout above this resistance could lead to a fresh upward swing.
• Risk factors: Breakdown below ₹1,715 with volume may invalidate the setup. Previous multiple rejections from this zone mean caution is needed if price struggles to hold above ₹1,745.
• Buy at: ₹1,745.00
• Target price: ₹1,795– ₹1,810 in 4–5 days
• Stop loss: ₹1,715.00

Market update: Indices close higher after a volatile session

On Wednesday, 14 May, the Indian stock market opened with a gap-up but struggled to maintain higher levels throughout the day. After initial selling pressure, the indices saw a modest recovery in the latter half of the session.

Despite the intraday volatility, the market ended in the green, although the overall trend remained sideways. The India VIX fell, signalling reduced market fear.

The BSE Sensex closed at 81,330.56, up 182.34 points or 0.22%, while the NSE Nifty 50 rose by 106.55 points or 0.43%, settling at 24,684.90. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty slipped 0.25% or 139.55 points, ending at 54,801.30.

Sectoral Performance

The banking index fell by 0.25%, reflecting cautious investor sentiment, while the finance sector dropped 0.23% due to concerns over credit risks amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.

In contrast, the metal sector gained 2.46%, buoyed by strong global commodity prices. The realty sector rose 1.70%, and the energy sector gained 1.42%, showing resilience amid selective buying.

Top Gainers

• Tata Steel surged 3.93%, driven by positive global cues.
• Shriram Finance rose by 2.90%.
• Bharat Electronics Limited advanced 2.56%, following the announcement of new order inflows.

Top Losers

• Asian Paints fell 1.82%, pressured by margin concerns.
• Cipla declined 1.66%, impacted by regulatory challenges.
• Tata Motors slipped 1.24%, reflecting weakness in export outlook and subdued demand in the auto sector.

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Nifty Technical Analysis

The Nifty saw a volatile session with an upward bias, making a high of 24,767 and a low of 24,535 before closing at 24,666.90 up 88.55 points from the previous session.

On the daily charts, the index has formed a small-bodied candle with wicks on both sides, reflecting indecision near the resistance zone of 24,800–24,900. While short-term sentiment appears mildly positive, the broader structure remains under pressure unless Nifty decisively closes above 24,900.

Thus, minor pullbacks into the resistance band of 24,800–24,900 should continue to be considered as a selling opportunity.

INDIAVIX eased sharply by -5.36% to 17.22, indicating a notable reduction in fear. However, the index still remains above comfort levels, implying caution is warranted. On the downside, the index is expected to find support near 24,400–24,500, which aligns with both technical support and options data concentration.

On the daily chart, Nifty is trading above the 20-day and 40-day exponential moving averages of 24,228 and 23,814 respectively.

On the hourly chart, it is hovering around the 20-hour and 40-hour moving averages of 24,714 and 24,541 respectively, indicating short-term indecision.

No fresh moving average crossovers have occurred on either time frame.

The daily momentum indicator (RSI) stands at 61, and the MACD remains in a positive crossover (MACD line: 343, Signal line: 334), although momentum is showing signs of exhaustion.

Derivatives & Open Interest (OI) Summary

The Put–Call Ratio (PCR–OI) has dropped further to 0.72, highlighting rising call writing and a cautious outlook at higher levels.

The Max Pain level has shifted slightly to 24,600, suggesting traders are positioning for expiry around this level.

On the Call side, heavy OI is seen at 25,000 CE (17.1 million) and 24,800 CE, reinforcing the resistance zone in the 24,800–25,000 band.

On the Put side, the highest OI is now at 24,500 PE (10.3 million) and 24,000 PE, offering strong support between 24,000–24,500.

Futures OI data indicates a mix of short covering and light fresh longs, pointing to a neutral to slightly bullish setup.

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FIIs remain marginally net long in index futures, while retail and proprietary traders maintain hedged positions.

The overall setup suggests that sell-on-rise remains the preferred approach unless Nifty closes above 24,900. The current OI structure and price action point toward a range-bound to slightly positive bias, with 24,400–24,500 acting as a near-term support zone and 25,000 capping the upside.

Ankush Bajaj is a Sebi-registered research analyst. His registration number is INH000010441.

Investments in securities are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.