Cryptocurrency investors are closely watching the Securities and Exchange Commission after Bloomberg Intelligence boosted its forecast for a Solana exchange-traded fund approval to 90% by late 2025.
The upgraded prediction from Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas reflects a changing regulatory environment following Gary Gensler’s departure as SEC chairman in January. Gensler, who took a cautious approach to cryptocurrency regulation during his tenure, stepped down Jan. 20. His replacement, Paul Atkins, is viewed as more supportive of digital assets.
The regulatory shift has prompted major asset managers to file new applications. Franklin Templeton submitted a proposal in February to track Solana’s price on the Cboe BZX Exchange. Grayscale, VanEck and 21Shares have also resubmitted applications, with SEC review deadlines extending through December.
Solana, a blockchain platform designed for speed and scalability, has gained momentum with prices rising more than 60% over the past year, according to Reuters. The renewed interest follows initial rejections of Solana ETF proposals in January that led some firms to withdraw their applications.
Bloomberg Intelligence’s April 30 analysis also raised approval odds for other cryptocurrency ETFs, including XRP at 85% and Dogecoin at 80%. The firm’s dashboard, shared by Balchunas on social media Tuesday, shows Solana’s approval deadline set for Oct. 12.
Trading markets reflect similar optimism. A Polymarket contract shows traders betting on an 89% chance of approval, closely matching analyst forecasts.
The push for alternative cryptocurrency ETFs builds on the success of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs approved in 2024. Those products helped stabilize their respective markets, according to research published in the Journal of Financial Economics.
ETF providers have urged the SEC to reinstate a “first-to-file” principle to encourage competition, which could speed Solana’s approval process. However, the SEC’s typical 240-to-260-day review period, noted by Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart, suggests early approvals remain uncommon.
Industry watchers say Solana ETF approval could open doors for other alternative cryptocurrencies, attracting institutional investors seeking broader crypto market exposure. Franklin Templeton’s February filing, reported by Reuters, highlights this trend as the firm seeks to capitalize on Solana’s growing adoption.
The SEC continues reviewing applications under its new leadership as the crypto community monitors potential changes to market regulation and stability.
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