The recent volatility in the Indian stock market has taken a toll on mid- and small-cap stocks, as investors grow increasingly cautious amid global uncertainty and elevated valuations, prompting them to exit these segments in search of safer bets in large-cap stocks, which are often perceived as more stable during turbulent phases.

Global markets have been on edge this week, with the latest escalation between Iran and Israel adding fresh strain to an already fragile global economy—one still grappling with the effects of trade tensions and the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war. However, the Indian stock market managed to end the week with healthy gains, supported largely by strength in blue-chip stocks.

Despite rising crude oil prices, prolonged trade tensions, and limited progress in negotiations between the US and its key trading partners, Indian large-cap stocks have continued to draw investor interest.

Optimism around corporate earnings—buoyed by a turnaround seen in the March quarter and expectations of stronger performance in the June quarter of FY26—along with relatively reasonable valuations compared to mid- and small-cap counterparts, has led investors to shift their focus toward these more established, higher-priced stocks.

Against this backdrop, both the Nifty 50 and Sensex closed with gains of nearly 2%, while the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices remained under pressure for the second consecutive week, each declining by up to 1%.

Recent data also indicates a shift in retail investor preference toward large-cap stocks, as ownership in mid- and small-cap counters fell to a nine-quarter low amid a broader market sell-off during the March 2025 quarter, according to the NSE’s report titled India Ownership Tracker.

During the March quarter, mid- and small-cap stocks underperformed their large-cap counterparts, further amplifying valuation concerns in these segments.

According to the latest analysis by domestic brokerage firm Kotak Institutional Equities, small caps led the earnings cuts, with a 6% reduction in FY2026 EPS estimates compared to a 2% cut for large caps and 3% for mid-caps.

On the valuation front, the Nifty SmallCap 100 is trading at a one-year forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 27.2x—significantly higher than its long-term average and close to the Nifty MidCap 100’s P/E of 28.3x.

This sharp rise in valuations places the Nifty SmallCap 100 near its historical peaks, levels last seen during previous phases of overheated sentiment, such as mid-2021 and pre-2018, according to domestic brokerage firm InCred Equities.

In contrast, the Nifty 50 is trading at a more reasonable 20.7x forward P/E. The narrowing valuation gap between small- and mid-cap stocks is making investors uncomfortable. Analysts believe this has prompted a shift in investor focus toward large-cap stocks.

High valuations could pressure SMIDs in the short term: Experts

Looking ahead, analysts expect small and mid-cap stocks are likely to underperform in the short term, given their elevated valuations and absence of short-term triggers.

Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited, said, “The recent weakness in the broader market is likely to continue since they are excessively valued, and the ongoing risk-off can lead to further selling in this segment. Money may move from the overvalued SMIDs to the fairly valued, safe large caps in financials, industrials, autos, and real estate.”

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.