The Indian stock market logged its longest weekly winning streak of the year, driven by gains in index heavyweights, steady foreign inflows, and renewed optimism over the India-US trade deal. Gains were capped by profit booking over India-Pakistan geopolitical tensions after the Pahalgam terror attack.

Next, investors will monitor some key market triggers in the coming week. The next set of March quarter earnings for fiscal 2024-25 (Q4FY25), US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, domestic macroeconomic data, India-Pakistan geopolitical tensions, foreign capital inflows, trade deal announcements, and global cues will dictate the market trend in the week.

Indian stock market trends

Domestic equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty 50 rose for the third straight week, registering more than one per cent gains amid sustained foreign fund inflows and robust corporate earnings. The Nifty 50 index rose 307.35 points or 1.28 per cent over the week, closing at 24,346.70, while BSE Sensex jumped 1,289.46 points or 1.62 per cent to settle the week at 80,501.99.

“Early signs of easing US–China trade tensions further bolstered market optimism. Strong quarterly earnings from key heavyweights and the Reserve Bank of India’s supportive policy stance amid moderating inflation provided further uplift to the market,” said Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group.

“Overall, a combination of robust fundamentals, favourable policy signals, and constructive technical indicators kept market sentiment strong,” added Singhania. Moreover, market analysts noted that a firm trend in global markets also added to the positive momentum in domestic equities.

“Optimism around a potential trade agreement with the US and expectations of a corporate earnings recovery heading into FY26 underpinned the positive sentiment in the domestic market,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited, on last week’s market trend.

“Gains were tempered by geopolitical concerns, on fears of escalating tensions between India and Pakistan, alongside mixed Q4 earnings that weighed on investor sentiment. Domestic markets are expected to remain cautious in the near term amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, although a sharp correction is not currently anticipated,” said Nair.

This week, the primary market will witness more action, with some new initial public offerings (IPO) and listings slated across the mainboard and small and medium enterprises (SME) segments. The week will be critical from the domestic and technical points of view. Investors will track domestic macroeconomic data, global policy along with corporate earnings.
 

Here are the key triggers for stock markets in the coming week:

US Fed Policy

US Fed officials are expected to leave the US central bank’s benchmark interest rate in the 4.25 per cent- 4.50 per cent range for the third straight meeting of 2025, having reduced it by 100 basis points since September 2024. In the previous meeting, US Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled two rate cuts in 2025, eyeing a reduction of 50 bps from the current rate.

Last month, Powell said the US Fed would wait for more macroeconomic data on the economy’s direction before changing interest rates, but cautioned that US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies risked pushing inflation and employment further from the central bank’s goals.

Q4 Results, Macro data

On the corporate earnings front, several prominent companies—including M&M, Coal India, Asian Paints, L&T, Titan, Coforge, One 97 Communication, Pidilite Industries and Dr, Reddy’s Labs—are set to release their quarterly results. On the macroeconomic front, investors would be eyeing the HSBC Composite PMI and HSBC Services PMI Final data.

IPO Action: 2 new issues, 5 listings

In the coming week, no new mainboard IPOs have been scheduled to open for subscription so far. In the SME segment, two new issues will open for bidding this week. Among listings, shares of Ather Energy will get listed on BSE, NSE on May 6. Additionally, shares of four SMEs will get listed on either BSE SME or NSE SME in the coming week.

FII Activity

Foreign institutional investors (FII) continued their buying spree, injecting nearly ₹7,680 crore into the cash segment, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) added around ₹9,269.47 crore. The reversal in FII strategy in India from selling to buying continued for the week ending May 2.

During the first three months of 2025, FIIs were big sellers through the exchanges. Cumulatively, FIIs sold equity for ₹1,29,680 crore during this three-month period. In April, FIIs turned buyers, having bought equity for ₹3,243 crore.

During the last 12 trading days, FIIs have been sustained buyers in the cash market, having bought equities for ₹40,145 crore cumulatively. According to Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments, this is a major pivot in FII’s strategy. There are two major factors behind the FII strategy’s reversal.

“One, Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs led to a recovery in global equity markets. In this recovery, India outperformed. Two, the weakness in the dollar, halted and reversed the momentum trade towards the US witnessed after Trump’s victory in the elections,” he said.

“The steep decline in the dollar index from 111 on January 11 to 99 recently facilitated FII inflows to emerging markets, particularly India. FII inflows can remain stable, but they will be constrained by the modest earnings growth of around five per cent in FY25,” added Dr VK Vijayakumar.

Global Cues, India-Pakistan geopolitical tensions

The coming week is crucial, packed with key global triggers. D-Street experts say developments regarding tariffs, trade and geopolitical tensions with Pakistan after the Pahalgam terror attack will be watched closely by investors. While on the global front, the US Fed interest rate decision is due on May 7, where they will discuss the future rate cuts.

“Globally, easing trade tensions between the US and China, coupled with a weakening US dollar, are seen as medium-term positives for emerging markets such as India. The recent decline in Q1 US GDP growth adds a layer of uncertainty. In this context, upcoming comments from the US Federal Reserve Chair on interest rates and inflation during next week’s FOMC meeting will be closely watched and could significantly influence market direction,” said Vinod Nair of Geojit Investments Limited.

Corporate Action

Shares of CRISIL Ltd, Varun Beverages Ltd, Bajaj Finance Ltd, Bank of Maharashtra, among others, will trade ex-dividend next week starting from Monday, May 5. Shares of some stocks including, Info Edge (India) Ltd, and others will also trade ex-split next week.

Technical View

Technically, for the Nifty 50, it will be crucial to hold the 23,800 level downside to maintain its bullish tone. A breach could lead to extended profit-taking, with the next major support near 23,400—where key moving averages such as 20- day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs still supporting upside. Read full technical analysis here

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts, consider individual risk tolerance, and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and individual circumstances may vary.