NERVILLE, Illinois, – U.S. farmers are poised to reap a record corn crop in the upcoming 2025-26 cycle.

Additionally, combined output among key corn exporters in South America is also slated for an all-time high in 2025-26.

But the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts global corn ending stocks to fall to 12-year lows in 2025-26 as demand continues its robust pace. This means that the strong U.S. crop expectations need to come to fruition to prevent a further slippage in supplies. USDA on Monday pegged 2025-26 global corn ending stocks at 277.8 million metric tons, considerably below the pre-report trade estimate of 297.4 million.

That is down 3% on the year and down 16% from 2023-24, and it would represent the lightest global carryout since 2013-14.

If demand is factored in, corn stocks-to-use of 18.9% in 2025-26 would be the lowest since 2012-13, further demonstrating that corn supplies are not exactly predicted to be plentiful.

If China is excluded from global corn stocks, the 2025-26 target actually rises 7% on the year. Still, the resulting figure would be the second-smallest in 13 years.

This means China is acting to trim global corn stocks rather than boost them, the latter of which is usually the case due to China’s grain hoarding. USDA sees a record-large 2025-26 Chinese corn crop, but the rate of growth is set to be the smallest in five years. That harvest outlook is consistent with what China reported on Monday. However, China forecasts its corn imports flat on the year while USDA is hoping for a bump in 2025-26.

U.S. CORN RUNDOWN USDA’s U.S. corn ending stock estimate for 2025-26 was also surprisingly light at 1.8 billion bushels, coming in right at the lowest trade estimate. That was driven by the tightening of old-crop stocks plus a forecast for record new-crop demand.

Some analysts took issue with the aggressive demand assumptions, particularly on exports. Those are set to take an above-average, but not record, share of total U.S. corn use.

U.S. corn exporters may face more competition from Brazil over the next year as both its 2024-25 and 2025-26 crops are seen well above the meager levels of 2023-24. USDA also sees 2025-26 imports by Mexico, the largest U.S. corn buyer, unchanged on the year.

Tighter-than-expected 2025-26 U.S. corn carryout and the associated record crop of 15.82 billion bushels, some 6.4% more than last year, depend on a record 181 bushel-per-acre yield. The current high is last year’s 179.3.

The potential loftiness of a 181 yield might have some market participants thinking that actual U.S. corn supplies could be even thinner into 2026, but don’t forget about area. Many expect that the current 95.3 million-planted-acre target could rise.

Keeping the same yield, corn acres at 96 million would add 116 million bushels to production. Acres at 97 million add 282 million bushels, which would lift carryout over the psychological 2 billion-bushel mark if nothing else is changed.

Those impacts would first be seen in USDA’s July supply and demand report, which will incorporate the June area survey results. U.S. farmers are working efficiently this spring, having planted an above-average 62% of their corn crop as of Sunday.

But the real test is going to come over the next couple of months.

The latest set of USDA projections means that any kind of U.S. summer weather scare could ignite corn supply concerns, and potentially more easily than many might have previously expected.

Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.

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